Monday 14 May 2007

FOREX Trading System - Building One for Big Profits in 3 Simple Steps



(by Sacha Tarkovsky)

Here we are going to show you how to build your own profitable FOREX trading system in simple steps.

You can build one easily by utilizing free information on the web.

We are going to look at choosing a methodology, structuring the system and implementing it for profit – It will give you big profit potential and won’t cost you a cent.

The methodology below is the basis for all my trading systems and its very simple. I have traded for over 23 years and tried just about ever system out there and the fact is:

When trading FOREX, simple systems beat complicated ones, as they are more robust in the face of ever changing market conditions.

The methodology below works and will continue to work, so let’s take a look at it.

1. Methodology

Look at any FOREX chart and what do you see?

Long term trends that last for weeks or months – These are the trends you need to target.

To target these trends all you need to understand is the concept of support and resistance and price momentum.

Now we need a methodology, let’s take one that has stood the test of time and will continue to work – trading breakouts.

Breakouts from significant support and resistance are one of the most effective ways of catching the big profitable moves.

FACT: Most major currency moves start from new market highs NOT market lows.

You can read all about the above concepts free on the web and in some shape or form most of the worlds top traders use breakouts.

In conclusion, we are going to look for long term trends from support and resistance - now let’s look at how to put this into practice.

2. Structuring a System

Now you need to organize the above and enter some trades – Here is a simple way of trading the above:

• Look at the weekly chart

Look for well established support and resistance that has been tested several times preferably at least 4 times and several weeks apart

• Look at the daily charts

Now look for tests that coincide with the weekly levels that have again been tested several times.

NOTE:

If you start with the weekly chart you will get the big picture and well established support and resistance can be seen - that if broken will give you high odds of the break continuing.

3. Timing the trade

Here we need to look at price momentum and trade with confirmation that the odds are in our favor.

Trading with price strength on a break is an essential element of any successful FOREX trading system and you need indicators that will help you spot it.

Pull up a free chart service such as futuresource.com

Look at the stochastic indicator and Relative Strength Index ( RSI), both these are fantastic confirming indicators.

We don’t have time to write about them in detail here but they are covered in our other articles so look them up.

If a break occurs you can go with the break providing your momentum indicators confirm it.

If you are only trading strong support and resistance that the market recognizes as significant then the odds of the break continuing as stops are unwound and trend followers come in is higher.

Stops should be below the breakout point on daily close basis only (US hours) you can also wait till the end of the session to enter your trades.

This system won't give you many trades each year, but the ones it will give you will have high odds of success and fantastic profit potential.

The FOREX Trading system above can be adapted, but its an excellent base to start from and is perfect for novice FOREX traders.

Take a look at this FOREX trading system because:

Its simple to understand, simple to apply, takes less than 30 minutes a day and can yield triple digit gains

Even better it costs you nothing, but could make you significant long term capital gains.

Don’t spend money on worthless e-books selling systems they have plucked from free information on the net build your own.

GRAB 3 X FREE ESSENTIAL TRADER PDF'S AND MUCH MORE!

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including features, downloads and some critical FREE Trader PDF's and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Saturday 12 May 2007

Choose One Currency - The Importance Of Focus In Forex Trading



(by Jovan Vucetic)

Many beginner forex traders start out making a common mistake. They will begin trading one currency but within a month and sometimes much less, will have traded almost all the major currencies. If you take a peek at some of the forex chat forums on the Internet, you will see enthusiastic newbie traders making the same mistake. They will ask questions, discuss and trade the yen, the pound, the euro, the Swiss franc and go back and forth between them all.

Why do they do this and why is it foolish?

Let’s see. If you ask them why they do this, they will probably reply that either they saw an opportunity for a profitable trade on their charts that was too good to pass up or that they were just increasing their chances of success by spreading their bets. Fair enough, that seems like a perfectly fine answer.

Imagine this however: You are a pretty strong guy and you think you can handle yourself in a street fight. Then you are thrown into a ring with a guy who’s been training boxing for years. The outcome of this fight? Well, there really is no fight – you will get slaughtered.

Forex trading is the same. To be a success, you must always be looking at ways to swing the odds in your favour. The fundamentals that influence the yen are totally different to that of the Swiss franc or that of the Australian dollar. If you are trading them all, while it may appear the same, its not. Just like the fight against the boxer, you are up against highly paid institutional traders and currency analysts - experts in a particular currency.

When a news announcement breaks, without thinking they know and incorporate its effect on a particular currency and its relationship to other currencies, the interest rates, bonds and gold market. The Australian dollar is a commodity price driven currency; the Swiss franc will do well when global security is a problem; the yen is a currency reflecting a nation with a huge export surplus and so on. All these currencies have different characters, moods and personas. They are influenced by different and conflicting information that you need to be aware of.

To increase your chances of success in trading, it is much better to master one chosen currency. This will help you build focus and trading discipline. Sticking to trading one currency will eliminate the need to have to focus on numerous sets of information. However, the most important thing: with time, as you understand your chosen currency and its character traits inside out, you will gain conscious confidence in your trading – something invaluable in this game.

If you are switching back and forth from trading one currency to another, understand that no one currency is easier or better to trade than another. There are no guarantees that you will make more money trading one particular currency over another. If you were doing poorly trading one currency and decided to switch to another thinking this might improve your chances, think why should it?

It is much smarter to stay focused, learn the particularities of your currency inside out and in the process develop trading discipline. Over the long run, you will have swung the odds of success in your favour.

Jovan Vucetic is the Editor of Margin Strategies, an educational forex website, which reviews forex trading systems. Learn about different types of forex trading strategies including a 100% fully mechanical trading system.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Friday 11 May 2007

Forex Factory- How To Prepare For Your Trading Session



(by Michael A Jones)

The Forex Factory web site is a very popular site among developing Forex traders as shown by an Alexa rating of around 5,400 most visited sites on the web. Any site within the first 100,000 gets serious traffic!

Forex Factory provides 3 main services listed in my personal order of importance:

- Calendar

- News

- Forum

Calendar

The main attraction of the Forex Factory calendar of upcoming economic reports and fundamental announcements is that it is so visual and easy to read.

A color coding system gives an indication at a glance as to how volatile the announcement is expected to be:

Yellow - Low Impact

Orange - Medium Impact

Red - High Impact

Another good feature of this calendar is the ability to customize the time to your own time zone. So instead of having to add or subtract a certain number of hours from GMT to arrive at the time of the economic report in your country, you can set the calendar according to your time zone and see the time accurately displayed.

This feature saves some confusion and prevents a newer trader from leaving a trade in around a volatile news report because of getting the time mixed up!

News

A number of news reports are featured daily from authorities and advisors in the financial markets.

Within a few minutes the trader can come up to speed on the latest economic factors that might impact the market.

Forums

The Forums at Forex Factory have a huge appeal as indicated by the thousands of users online each day.

The forums are divided into various themes including:

General Discussion

Trading Systems

Broker Discussion

Forex Beginner Questions and Answers

How To Get The Best From Forex Factory

For me, the calendar is by far the most useful feature at Forex Factory. I consult it each day in preparation for the next trading session and make sure I am out of the market around volatile news releases (flagged by the red icon) and also many times the medium impact reports (flagged by the orange icon). The News feature is also useful to get a broad overview of market sentiment. At the same time caution is needed if you use technical analysis as your main trading tool as the comments and opinions of others can sometimes blur your own analysis and lead to flawed trade entries.

You may have detected a perfectly good trade setup and the trade is going well. Then as it starts to stall the comments of a news analyst come to mind and you exit prematurely from what could have been a very profitable trade.

So it is good to view the News objectively and coordinate it with your own technical analysis.

Forums - Be A Little Cautious

For newer traders the discussion forums can be helpful in bouncing ideas off other newer traders. One of the main benefits is encouragement and motivation from hearing how others are getting on.

However, as to whether you can get good trading tips and strategies from the forums is in my mind a little doubtful.

After I attended a Forex seminar run by a licensed professional who trades the Forex every day and is a fund manager, I noted his comment that the really successful Forex traders rarely have time to visit online forums and participate in discussions. They are too busy making money on the Forex!

So as long as you approach forum discussions with the realization that most participants are also in the learning stage, you can evaluate their comments and suggestions accordingly.

There is no doubt Forex Factory (forexfactory.com) provides an excellent group of services for newer Forex traders. Definitely use the calendar to the full and depending on your level of expertise, use the News and Forums features to gain a better perspective of daily market activity.

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

For a collection of invaluable free Forex tools:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Wednesday 9 May 2007

Pivot Point Trading- 7 Guidelines For Success



(by Michael A Jones)

What do we mean by pivot point trading? It simply means that Forex traders take into account pivot points calculated from the previous day's trading range and use them as reference points to identify support and resistance levels.

Taking the high, low, close and open values of the previous day's price action, strategic levels can be identified which may or may not have an influence on price action. Pivot point trading puts emphasis on these levels, and uses them to guide entry and exit points for trades.

However, as with any technical indicator, there are limitations and pivot point trading, to be high probability, needs to stay within certain parameters. The following 7 guidelines can help pivot point trading be more profitable:

No. 1

Pivot points should not be used as a standalone indicator. Do not enter or exit trades purely on the basis of pivot points. Use them in conjunction with other indicators such as candle patterns, Fibonacci levels, MACD, and moving averages to identify and confirm key levels of support and resistance which may provide trading opportunities.

No. 2

While some traders living in various parts of the world may calculate their pivot points according to the time zone in which they live, a fairly safe standard for calculating the levels of pivot point trading is to use GMT (Greenwich Meantime).

Midnight GMT is a very quiet time in the market with very little volatility and provides a good opportunity to calculate more accurate pivot levels going from midnight GMT to midnight GMT the following day.

No. 3

It is good to understand what is going on behind the scenes when it comes to pivot point trading. Rather than just staring at candles on a chart, understand what they actually represent.

Thousands of traders around the world, some working for large institutions and handling millions or even billions of dollars worth of currency, are taking positions according to previously established highs and lows in the market.

Pivot points draw attention to these key levels which will often be strongly defended by traders who have a lot at stake. This is the reason pivot point trading can be so successful, once a trader understands underlying reasons for price action.

No. 4

It is good to calculate mid levels in addition to the S1, S2, R1, and R2 pivot levels. Sometimes there is a significant gap between these levels and calculating a mid point gives another point of reference. Price will often be seen respecting M1, M2, M3, or M4.

To calculate mid levels, simply subtract the level below from the level above and divide by 2. (see the resource box for a free pivot point calculator)

No. 5

Pivot point trading can be a useful strategy for entering and exiting trades at the right time. A pivot point can provide a key level of support or resistance where price is likely to bounce for a 10-20 pip profit.

Or in the case of a trend, price may retrace to a pivot level before continuing its run. The retracement point at the pivot level would be a good place to put an entry order to be taken in when price comes back to retest at the pivot level.

No. 6

The Euro - US dollar pair often puts in a daily average of between 75 and 100 pips. Watch for specific behavior around the time of the London market open. Price will often come back to test a level which is a pivot point and form a distinctive candle pattern such as tweezers, or a hanging man, and then reverse and go on its 75-100 pip run for the day.

If price comes back to the M1 level check your other indicators to see if they confirm this would be a good level to go long. Likewise, if price, just around London open, tests the M4 level, check your other indicators to see if this would be a good place to go short. You may be able to get a slice of the 75-100 pip run for the day.

No. 7

Pivot point trading helps mentally in establishing the buy zone and the sell zone. Traditionally, anything above the Central Pivot Point is a Sell area, and everything below the Central Pivot Point is a Buy area.

If you go contrary to that, make sure you double check your analysis and have very good reasons for doing otherwise.

Pivot point trading is just one of an arsenal of weapons available to Forex market participants. However, it must be stated that many successful traders use just a handful of tools that become their favorites. After all, too many indicators can lead to decision paralysis.

For many traders, pivot points are a key element in their overall trading strategy. Use the 7 guidelines above to use them safely and responsibly.

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Download a free Forex Pivot Point Calculator you can customize here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/pivot-point-calculator-download.html

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Tuesday 8 May 2007

MACD Divergence Forex Signal - How Reliable?



(by Michael A Jones)

Some traders regard MACD divergence as a Forex signal to enter a high probability trade. They almost suggest you get straight in to a trade as soon as you see MACD divergence.

Is this Forex signal that reliable? To be fair, it certainly has a place in a successful trader's kit of strategies, but as with any Forex signal, there are certain precautions that have to be observed to make any trade high probability.

At this time there doesn't appear to be any Forex signal that offers anywhere near a 100% success rate.

So if you are tempted to trade on the basis of MACD divergence, what other factors should you keep in mind?

MACD Divergence Defined

First let's just spell out exactly what is meant by MACD divergence.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) comes as a standard Forex signal on all the main charting packages. Some show MACD by itself with two lines, one a combination of a 12 and 26 Exponential Moving Average, and the other line based on a 9 Exponential Moving Average.

Some charting packages also include what is called a Histogram in the same charting area as MACD. The histogram merely represents in a different way what is happening between the two MACD lines as to market momentum. The wider the gap between the MACD lines, the higher or lower the height of the histogram bars.

To identify MACD divergence, simply draw a line across the highs if MACD is above the zero line, or draw a line across the lows if MACD is below the zero line.

Now go to the price action section of the chart, the candlesticks, and draw a line across the highs directly above where the line is drawn on the MACD highs, or draw a line across price lows directly above where the line is drawn on MACD lows.

If they are going in opposite directions you have MACD divergence. In other words, when MACD is making lower highs and lower lows but price is making higher highs and higher lows, this negative MACD divergence forms a Forex signal indicating price could well start to drop.

If MACD is making higher highs and higher lows but price is making lower highs and lower lows, this positive MACD divergence forms a Forex signal indicating price could well start to rise.

MACD Divergence Precautions

Be aware that MACD divergence on a smaller time frame is not so significant. When it is seen on a 15 minute chart it may or may not be very important.

If seen on a 60 minute, 4 hour, or daily chart, start doing more analysis.

If you see MACD divergence on two or more of the higher time frames, then definitely sit up and take notice and start looking for other factors to indicate when price may react to the divergence.

This brings us to a key point when trading MACD divergence as a Forex signal to enter a trade. On a higher time frame, MACD divergence can be a fairly reliable indicator of a change in price direction. However, the big question is: WHEN?

Many traders get caught out by entering a trade too soon when they see MACD divergence. In many cases, price has still got some muscle to continue in the current direction. The trader who has jumped in too soon can only stare at the screen in dismay as price shoots through his stop taking him out.

How Can This Scenario Be Avoided

Before pulling the trigger when you see MACD divergence on the higher time frames, be sure to look for other key Forex signals to confirm that the divergence has really kicked in.

For example, if you see a distinctive candle pattern such as a tweezer top or a hanging man on the higher time frame it may appear price has topped out and is now ready to move in the other direction.

If at the same time the distinctive candle pattern is at a key level of previous support or resistance, or at a pivot level, or a Fibonacci retracement or extension level, you have added reason to believe this could well be a turning point and put an entry order in at this level to get taken in.

At the same time, you will want to consult your trading calendar to make sure you are not entering a trade near a significant Fundamental Announcement. Even though the MACD divergence may kick in soon, the Fundamental Announcement could cause a major spike in price and take out your stop.

So in summary, is MACD divergence a high probability Forex signal?

Answer: By itself NO!

How can MACD divergence be used safely?

Answer: Check to see if MACD divergence is seen on one or more higher time frame charts such as the 60 minute, 4 hour, or daily.

Then look for other Forex signals such as candle patterns, support or resistance levels, or Fibonacci retracement extension levels.

In other words, use MACD divergence as a confirmation Forex signal that you are going in the right direction rather than a stand-alone Forex signal.

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

For a collection of invaluable free Forex tools:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Saturday 5 May 2007

Forex Information - How To Draw DeMark Trendlines



(by Michael A Jones)

When searching for Forex information on the internet you are likely to find articles relating to trendlines and trendline analysis.

Tom DeMark is a specialist in the field of technical market analysis and his best-selling book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" released in 1994 spells out some innovative techniques when it comes to the use of trendlines.

Much Forex information on the internet is of a general nature, and many articles are written about Forex by individuals who are not traders themselves. Tom DeMark on the other hand has had a long career with institutions trading stocks, futures, currencies and options.

His guidelines on the use of trendlines are very specific and they can be helpful to the newer trader who is searching for reliable Forex information on how to use standard indicators.

Here is a brief step-by-step description of how to draw DeMark trendlines:

Note: The term swing high and swing low (also called cycle high and cycle low) refers to the following:

In An Uptrend: A swing high is the wick of a candle that is higher than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

In A Downtrend: A swing low is the wick of a candle that is lower than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

Obviously the more candles to the left and right that are higher in a swing low or lower in a swing high makes the swing or cycle more significant.

An uptrend is where price is making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is where price is making lower highs and lower lows.

Drawing DeMark Trendlines

Drawing Trendlines In An Uptrend




Examine the bottoms of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is lower than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


Look left on the chart, and identify the previous low candle that has candle wicks higher to the immediate right and left of it which is lower than the current low candle.


Now draw a line from the current lowest candle to the previous lowest candle (drawing from right to left).


Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current low candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

Drawing Trendlines In A Downtrend




Examine the tops of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is higher than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


Look left on the chart, and identify the previous high candle that has candle wicks lower to the immediate right and left of it which is higher than the current high candle.


Now draw a line from the current highest candle to the previous highest candle (drawing from right to left).


Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current high candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

You have now drawn a Tom DeMark trendline.

This can now be a reference point for future price action. It will often be observed that price will come and check this level. If it breaks through, it can mean a change in direction, the significance of which will depend on the time frame being used.

Trendlines drawn on 5 minute or 15 minute charts have much lesser significance than trendlines drawn on higher time frames such as the 1 hour, 4 hour, or daily.

Caution Required

Much Forex information extols the virtues of trendlines as an indicator of possible future price action.

Mr. DeMark certainly has made this a science and his detailed approach to drawing trendlines is certainly more accurate than just drawing general trendlines along the bottoms and tops of trends according to the way the eye sees.

However, trendlines in themselves do not indicate where high probability trades can be taken.

It is important to use a variety of indicators before pulling the trigger. Examining previous levels of support and resistance is probably far more significant in determining where price is likely to hesitate that watching trendlines.

However, they can be useful. If you find a key support or resistance level also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement or extension level which is also at an intersection with a trendline, then you have built a reasonably solid case for a trade.

Use this Forex information on DeMark trendlines wisely, with caution, and it can be another useful addition to the Forex day trader's toolkit!

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

For a collection of invaluable free Forex tools:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Friday 4 May 2007

FOREX Day Trading - Brokers Love Day Traders For One Reason



(by Kelly Price)

FOREX Day traders are loved by brokers these are the traders they simply want more than any other type of trader.

FOREX day traders are wary of brokers, because they think they pick their stops off and that’s why they love them – but the real reason is:

Day traders are guaranteed to lose their money without any help from a broker. I used to work in the back office of a broker and we factored them in as losing straight away and a big fat profit for us.

So here are the reasons we loved them and other brokers do to:

1. Day trading by its very nature doesn’t work

Trying to trade in short time spans of a few hours or a day and to try and measure where prices are going is ridiculous.

All short term volatility is random and prices can and do, go anywhere.

We traded several thousand day traders and not one made money, they all lost.

The logic FOREX day trading is based upon is totally flawed.

Try this simple test:

Ask any vendor selling a system on the net and ask for a real time track record and see if you get one – You won’t.

Many of them are simply writers or failed brokers.

They make up track records sell them and then do a deal with a broker for a kick back commission and believe me the commission is good – we paid out tens of thousands every month!

2 Great commission

Day trading is the best commission to equity you can get and for a broker that’s great.

Lots of trades, eroding account equity to zero and paying commission every day.

Much better than a trader coming in and blowing his equity in a couple of trades.

Market makers are equally happy.

As they want the traders deposit lost and on their book.

They are trading against the client and don’t need to worry it will soon be in the bank. Furthermore, as day traders never make any big profits (running profits is totally alien to them)

The risk of carrying a day trader on your own book as a broker is low.

DO BROKERS HUNT STOPS?

The answer is no.

Day traders believe this, but the real reason is they set their stops to close.

Support and resistance are meaningless in day sessions and that’s why stops get hit all the time.

Its not the brokers fault, it’s the day traders for being stupid and placing his stops in meaningless time frames where volatility is random.

There you have it.

The reason brokers love day traders is their great money earners for the house and guaranteed to lose as well, which is perfect for market makers.

GRAB 3 X FREE TRADER PDF'S AND MUCH MORE!

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including features, downloads and some critical FREE Trader PDF's and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Thursday 3 May 2007

Forex Day Trading: Top 7 Checklist When Using Support And Resistance



(by Michael A Jones)

Why are support and resistance levels crucial when participating in the Forex day trading market?

Simply put, they represent key, strategic price points at which traders processed orders involving millions or even billions of dollars. No wonder price at times has a hard time getting past a previous high or low. Those levels are being fiercely defended by traders who have large amounts of money at stake and who do not want to see price break those levels.

For this reason anyone who engages in Forex day trading should learn how to trade support and resistance. The following checklist provides crucial guidelines:

1. Support and resistance levels are much more significant on the higher time frames. Pay particular attention to price highs and lows on the daily chart as this time frame is commonly used by big traders.

2. A price high or low has more significance when it has a number of candles either side of it which are lower (in the case of a price high) or higher (in the case of a price low).

3. Before you consider Forex day trading at a support or resistance level, see if there are more factors that would indicate this is a key price level.

For example, does a trendline intersect at the same point? Does the support or resistance line match up with a Fibonacci level, either a retracement or an extension? Does the support or resistance level coincide with a pivot point if you are in the practice (and it's a wise one) of calculating pivot levels when Forex day trading?

4. Has a key support resistance level been broken? Then look to see if price will come back to test that level. Remember, resistance once broken can become support in the future and support once broken can become resistance in the future.

These Forex day trading scenarios can present excellent trading opportunities as you put an entry order in at the key level and wait for price to come back and pull you in. Within a short time your dealing spread is covered and you are in profit.

5. The market spends most of its time in trading ranges or consolidation channels. You need to accept that this is a characteristic of Forex day trading and adjust your mindset accordingly. Identify the high and low of the trading channel and manage your trades accordingly.

6. After identifying a trading channel or range and you see a trading opportunity, set your entry level at the base of the channel if you are going long or at the top of the channel if you are going short.

Don't chase after price once it breaks out of the channel (although many who engage in Forex day trading do so). You will not get the optimal entry point. Waiting for price to take you in either at the top or bottom of the channel means you can have a smaller stop and your price target is closer.

7. Pay particular attention to the previous day's high and low. Price will often hesitate and retrace at these levels. If you are a Forex day trading scalper, you can often grab a nice pull back of 10 pips or more at these strategic levels.

Note: Although there are various ways to calculate the previous 24 hour period depending on where you live, using GMT as a standard is often beneficial. Midnight GMT is a time when the market is generally very quiet and unlikely to make new highs or lows.

Succeed Or Fail?

It is unlikely you will succeed at Forex day trading if you fail to understand or take into consideration support and resistance. This indicator is that crucial! Yes there may be fancy indicators out there with all the bells and whistles, but this simple indicator, marking where price reached a high or low during previous trading sessions, can be one of the most powerful and effective Forex day trading tools available.

Be sure you spend sufficient time studying it, examining your charts, marking off the key levels each time you begin a new Forex day trading session.

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

For a collection of invaluable free Forex tools:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Wednesday 2 May 2007

Forex Traders - Speculating on The Presently Undervalued Chinese Yuan



(by Ariyo Akinlosotu)

The Yuan can yield tremendous profits to investors if it rises against the dollar. The article below will discuss fully about the subject.

China’s trade surplus has been a sore thumb with the American government over the past few years. The Americans believe that their massive trade deficit with China is fuelled by a cheap Yuan policy which the Chinese government is determined to pursue in order to keep its economy humming at break neck speeds.

In order to keep the Yuan weak, the government has been mopping up dollars at a frantic pace. This has made China the country with the most foreign reserves, now topping over $1.2trillion. This is equivalent to half it’s GDP and will easily accommodate over one year of imports- which is far higher than the acceptable four months.

The question is- can the Chinese accept a revaluation of the Yuan to more acceptable levels?

The communist government is terrified of social disorder. Its only claim to legitimacy is the fast economic growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out poverty over the past two decades especially in the last six years.

One of its primary tools of achieving fast growth is the weak Yuan policy which has created and sustained a manufacturing and export boom which in turn as lifted growth to dizzying levels.

Unfortunately for the government however, there is still discontent. There are over a 100million surplus farm hands seeking work and unemployment still exist in the cities.

Also large parts of China still remain very poor especially the hinterland.

To add to this, many farmers in the rural areas where most of them are based complain about official neglect and corruption.

China thus believes it still needs years of fast economic growth to arrest the above mentioned problems.

However, things are not as simple as they seem.

First and foremost, the weak Yuan which is tied to the dollar is causing liquidity to rise to dangerous levels within the economy. This is in turn swelling demand to horrendous levels. And deflation has now been replaced by inflation. Too high a level of inflation may bring- wait a minute- social disorder. Many analysts speculate that high inflation was perhaps the true trigger for the Tiananmen tragedy.

From high inflation perspective alone, the Yuan needs to strengthen

Anyway, the government has begun tightening credit, always preferring to use crude monetary instruments such as restricting the quantity of loans flowing to some certain sectors especially real estate and steel which are poster children of the boom.

This is working to slow down growth both only slightly.

Growth can only be moderated if the Yuan rises. And the truth is that a rise will not lead to a downturn, but at most – a very soft landing. Growth may slow to 8% which is not bad but less than the double digit figures it has been enjoying of late.

The government has since 2005 permitted the Yuan to appreciate and it has consequent gone from Y8.28/$1 TO 7.71/$1. And interestingly enough, this did not cool the economy.

This indicates that further strengthening of the currency may not in reality have a dampening effect on growth.

The question now is- to what level must the Yuan rise before it reaches its real value?

Tying it with a basket of other currencies, the value will need to rise to between 6.50 and 7Yuan to the U.S currency. Whether the government will have the stomach for it is another matter.

The economy can still grow at 8% annually.

The probability of such a rate appreciation taking place may be plausible bearing in mind that the government has allowed the currency to appreciate slowly against the dollar in particular.

For the time being, however, I foresee the currency hitting 7.40Yuan to a $1 within the year or at the least 7.50.

This portends a fat profit for any trader that decides to make a move now. It may be one of the best pickings for the year.

Desire To Make Money Trading Forex,Then Visit My Blog at http://www.forexmakingit.blogspot.com

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Tuesday 1 May 2007

Trading Plan



(by Sum Edward)

Trading is a business. As in any other business, a well thought-out plan can make the difference between success and failure. A trading plan is a pact you make with yourself. It is your personal blueprint for success. It must include not only your goals but must also detail how you plan to achieve them. Traders work alone, and so do not need to deal with many of the organizational issues confronting other business plans. But traders need a business plan (trading plan) just as much as any other business.

The three important factors that need to be strongly engrained into our minds and ultimately into our trading plans are Trading Psychology, Discipline, and a Trading System.

Trading Psychology: Your mind is your main trading asset and must be guarded. How do you plan to protect yourself throughout your trading career? How will you guard against burnout? When and for how long will you take a vacation or a break from trading? (Remember, it’s ok and it’s healthy to take a break from trading). What is your plan in the event of an unusually large loss? Are there things outside your trading which heavily influence you emotionally? How do you plan to deal with them? Emotional decisions are the most destructive factor to the bottom line. Your trading plan is your protection to guard against these!

Perhaps the single most important aspect of trading and yet the one that is paid little attention to by the average trader is the psychology of trading. Traders must remain emotionally detached from the market; this is easy to say but often difficult to do. A new trader will experience a gauntlet of emotions as they enter the markets for the first time – fear, anxiety, panic, joy, even greed – these are all emotions that the greenhorn trader should not only expect but be prepared to face. You need to remain emotionally detached and act according to your trading plan. Emotional imbalance impairs your ability to make intelligent decisions.

Of course, there are other things to consider besides your emotions. Do you know why you are trading? Are you trading for the thrill, for the challenge, or to make a steady income? Whatever the reason, you will enjoy the experience more and trade better if you know your purpose. Many new traders approach the market with unrealistic expectations. Instead of seeing trading as a business which requires both time and some hard work, they see the market as nothing more than a place to make “quick and easy money.” At first they may do well but without any kind of plan in place invariably their inexperience and overconfidence catches up with them.

You must accept the fact that the market is always right and that at times you’re going to be wrong. There is no shame in being wrong, even the best traders can be in error. If you don’t admit your wrong and do something about it, fear, greed and hope can cloud your vision of the market and can cause emotional responses harmful to your trading. Do not become in love with a losing position. If you’re wrong – admit it, get out, salvage your trading capital and wait for the next trading opportunity. Conversely, congratulate yourself and feel good about a trade when you have labored according to your trading plan, regardless of the profit or loss.

Acknowledge that you are the person responsible for your winning and losing – do not blame the market, do not blame a hot tip that did not plan out, and do not blame a newsletter or financial advisor. Losses give us the chance to focus on where our plan fell short and to instantly correct it.

Discipline:
Like most things in life, you will not succeed without discipline. Discipline is adhering to your established trading plan, including entry points and stops. To become consistently profitable, we must have a high level of self-discipline with a well-defined trading strategy that effectively maximizes profitable trades and minimizes losing trades. Creating a trading plan is relatively easy but it is the discipline to follow that plan that will differentiate capable traders from all others. During periods of profit, adhering to a trading plan is comparatively easy. However, during periods of loss the same trading plan will appear rigid and constricting and it is at such times that a trader will be tempted to stray from the plan. At times you might want to deviate from your trading plan, but doing so invalidates the reason for preparing it in the first place. Remember the purpose of the plan was to provide guidelines to follow. Breaking from it will often lead to risk exposure that you were originally unprepared to take.

Besides abandoning your trading plan, a lack of discipline can lead to other troubles for the trader. If you abandon your trading plan you may be tempted to impatiently rush into or out of trades without considering the consequences. You might also start to ignore price charts or start falling victim to your emotions. And most assuredly you will not utilize your stop-losses. Once you ignore your stop-losses it is only a matter of time before you make your last trade. How can you make money, if you don’t have any money to trade with? The most important trading rule is to cut your losses. Even though your primary motivation is to make money and you consider this important, protecting your trading capital is even more important.

One of the best ways to manage your risk when trading is to limit how much money you put into a single position. This is to guard against the possibility of something unpleasant occurring. What is the maximum percentage of your trading capital you are prepared to commit to a single trade? If you have had three losses in a row, the likelihood that you are going to have a profitable trade doesn’t automatically swing in your favor. Don’t increase your trade size thinking your next winner is just around the corner. Instead, after a few losses, your trade size should be decreased slightly to reflect your reduce trading capital. You also have to ask yourself, “What happens if you keep losing money?” Are you prepared to lose all of your trading capital before you are forced to stop, or do you think you would like to hold on to some of the money and place it somewhere else, with the plan of either not trading again for an extended period of time or giving up altogether?

There is a lot to learn about managing your money in trading. Telling you to cut losses is one thing but executing it ruthlessly and without delay can be another.

Trading System:
Having a routine makes it so much easier to follow your plan. Why is this critical? Well, why do most traders fail? Simple, they don’t have a plan. A trading plan will often follow a trading routine that the trader consistently exercises over and over again. The routine should bring together most of the parts of your trading plan into a methodical and deliberate process for each and every trade.

When you do not have a written trading plan, even though you have developed a plan in your head, it is too easy to drift away and go back to old habits. Having the written plan will guide you to making the right decisions. Consider the difference between knowing what has to be done and what you want to do. In trading, what has to be done is always the right choice, yet if you do not have a trading plan, you can easily decide with what you want to do, instead.

In your routine you’ll likely be sorting through large amounts of information in the form of websites. A routine will help you manage the information flow, it is important to identify what information you need and where you will find it. What information do you really need to trade and what information is for interest only but does not effect on your decisions?

Decide how you will categorize the industry/economic sectors in the market. Will you use any form of sector analysis in your method? If so, how will you use it? Will it be the starting point for your trade selection process or will it be a final filter to ensure you don’t enter stocks that belong to poorly performing sectors? If you are going to use fundamental analysis, what items are of most interest to you? For example, are you interested in earnings, dividends, growth, acquisitions? If so, how will you use that information?

Write down your trading methodology. Start by talking in very general terms about how you are going to approach your trades. As examples, are you going to trade only heavily traded stocks that are trading at new 52-week highs? Or are you going to trade more speculative stocks and trade breakouts and/or chart patterns? Are you going to use technical analysis? If so, will you be looking at trends? Over what time frame and how are you going to identify them? Are you interested in reversals of short-term or medium-term trends? If so, how will you identify them and then what will you do once you identify them? How about technical indicators? Will you use any of them? What are your conditions that you look for in all of your trades? What setups will you use and do you have printed examples in your trading plan to go back and review. Finally, what triggers will you use? Usually following specific trading rules and keeping it simple works best!

Write down your trading methodology. Start by talking in very general terms about how you are going to approach your trades. As examples, are you going to trade only heavily traded stocks that are trading at new 52-week highs? Or are you going to trade more speculative stocks and trade breakouts and/or chart patterns? Are you going to use technical analysis? If so, will you be looking at trends? Over what time frame and how are you going to identify them? Are you interested in reversals of short-term or medium-term trends? If so, how will you identify them and then what will you do once you identify them? How about technical indicators? Will you use any of them? What are your conditions that you look for in all of your trades? What setups will you use and do you have printed examples in your trading plan to go back and review. Finally, what triggers will you use? Usually following specific trading rules and keeping it simple works best!

It is essential that you monitor your performance for a variety of reasons. The most basic of these is to ensure you protect your trading capital. Further, monitoring your performance allows you to review your past trades and learn from your mistakes. This is an approach used by some of the best traders in the world. They will periodically review all of the trades they have conducted, both winners and losers, and learn from them. How will you go about conducting a review of your trading activities and how often will you do this? A trading diary should detail all of your trading decisions, including reasons for starting a trade, your emotions when opening the trade, trend direction, as well as daily adjustments of exits. A trading diary provides you with a methodical way of maintaining a clear focus. It can also assist you with learning from your mistake.

A written trading plan is the only way to go. It is critical that you create your plan when you are thinking clearly and then trade your plan. By planning each trade from beginning to end you are forced to follow a disciplined and methodical approach to the markets.

Please also visit http://options-diary.blogspot.com

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.