Saturday, 5 May 2007

Forex Information - How To Draw DeMark Trendlines



(by Michael A Jones)

When searching for Forex information on the internet you are likely to find articles relating to trendlines and trendline analysis.

Tom DeMark is a specialist in the field of technical market analysis and his best-selling book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" released in 1994 spells out some innovative techniques when it comes to the use of trendlines.

Much Forex information on the internet is of a general nature, and many articles are written about Forex by individuals who are not traders themselves. Tom DeMark on the other hand has had a long career with institutions trading stocks, futures, currencies and options.

His guidelines on the use of trendlines are very specific and they can be helpful to the newer trader who is searching for reliable Forex information on how to use standard indicators.

Here is a brief step-by-step description of how to draw DeMark trendlines:

Note: The term swing high and swing low (also called cycle high and cycle low) refers to the following:

In An Uptrend: A swing high is the wick of a candle that is higher than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

In A Downtrend: A swing low is the wick of a candle that is lower than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

Obviously the more candles to the left and right that are higher in a swing low or lower in a swing high makes the swing or cycle more significant.

An uptrend is where price is making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is where price is making lower highs and lower lows.

Drawing DeMark Trendlines

Drawing Trendlines In An Uptrend




Examine the bottoms of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is lower than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


Look left on the chart, and identify the previous low candle that has candle wicks higher to the immediate right and left of it which is lower than the current low candle.


Now draw a line from the current lowest candle to the previous lowest candle (drawing from right to left).


Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current low candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

Drawing Trendlines In A Downtrend




Examine the tops of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is higher than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


Look left on the chart, and identify the previous high candle that has candle wicks lower to the immediate right and left of it which is higher than the current high candle.


Now draw a line from the current highest candle to the previous highest candle (drawing from right to left).


Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current high candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

You have now drawn a Tom DeMark trendline.

This can now be a reference point for future price action. It will often be observed that price will come and check this level. If it breaks through, it can mean a change in direction, the significance of which will depend on the time frame being used.

Trendlines drawn on 5 minute or 15 minute charts have much lesser significance than trendlines drawn on higher time frames such as the 1 hour, 4 hour, or daily.

Caution Required

Much Forex information extols the virtues of trendlines as an indicator of possible future price action.

Mr. DeMark certainly has made this a science and his detailed approach to drawing trendlines is certainly more accurate than just drawing general trendlines along the bottoms and tops of trends according to the way the eye sees.

However, trendlines in themselves do not indicate where high probability trades can be taken.

It is important to use a variety of indicators before pulling the trigger. Examining previous levels of support and resistance is probably far more significant in determining where price is likely to hesitate that watching trendlines.

However, they can be useful. If you find a key support or resistance level also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement or extension level which is also at an intersection with a trendline, then you have built a reasonably solid case for a trade.

Use this Forex information on DeMark trendlines wisely, with caution, and it can be another useful addition to the Forex day trader's toolkit!

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

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Friday, 4 May 2007

FOREX Day Trading - Brokers Love Day Traders For One Reason



(by Kelly Price)

FOREX Day traders are loved by brokers these are the traders they simply want more than any other type of trader.

FOREX day traders are wary of brokers, because they think they pick their stops off and that’s why they love them – but the real reason is:

Day traders are guaranteed to lose their money without any help from a broker. I used to work in the back office of a broker and we factored them in as losing straight away and a big fat profit for us.

So here are the reasons we loved them and other brokers do to:

1. Day trading by its very nature doesn’t work

Trying to trade in short time spans of a few hours or a day and to try and measure where prices are going is ridiculous.

All short term volatility is random and prices can and do, go anywhere.

We traded several thousand day traders and not one made money, they all lost.

The logic FOREX day trading is based upon is totally flawed.

Try this simple test:

Ask any vendor selling a system on the net and ask for a real time track record and see if you get one – You won’t.

Many of them are simply writers or failed brokers.

They make up track records sell them and then do a deal with a broker for a kick back commission and believe me the commission is good – we paid out tens of thousands every month!

2 Great commission

Day trading is the best commission to equity you can get and for a broker that’s great.

Lots of trades, eroding account equity to zero and paying commission every day.

Much better than a trader coming in and blowing his equity in a couple of trades.

Market makers are equally happy.

As they want the traders deposit lost and on their book.

They are trading against the client and don’t need to worry it will soon be in the bank. Furthermore, as day traders never make any big profits (running profits is totally alien to them)

The risk of carrying a day trader on your own book as a broker is low.

DO BROKERS HUNT STOPS?

The answer is no.

Day traders believe this, but the real reason is they set their stops to close.

Support and resistance are meaningless in day sessions and that’s why stops get hit all the time.

Its not the brokers fault, it’s the day traders for being stupid and placing his stops in meaningless time frames where volatility is random.

There you have it.

The reason brokers love day traders is their great money earners for the house and guaranteed to lose as well, which is perfect for market makers.

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Thursday, 3 May 2007

Forex Day Trading: Top 7 Checklist When Using Support And Resistance



(by Michael A Jones)

Why are support and resistance levels crucial when participating in the Forex day trading market?

Simply put, they represent key, strategic price points at which traders processed orders involving millions or even billions of dollars. No wonder price at times has a hard time getting past a previous high or low. Those levels are being fiercely defended by traders who have large amounts of money at stake and who do not want to see price break those levels.

For this reason anyone who engages in Forex day trading should learn how to trade support and resistance. The following checklist provides crucial guidelines:

1. Support and resistance levels are much more significant on the higher time frames. Pay particular attention to price highs and lows on the daily chart as this time frame is commonly used by big traders.

2. A price high or low has more significance when it has a number of candles either side of it which are lower (in the case of a price high) or higher (in the case of a price low).

3. Before you consider Forex day trading at a support or resistance level, see if there are more factors that would indicate this is a key price level.

For example, does a trendline intersect at the same point? Does the support or resistance line match up with a Fibonacci level, either a retracement or an extension? Does the support or resistance level coincide with a pivot point if you are in the practice (and it's a wise one) of calculating pivot levels when Forex day trading?

4. Has a key support resistance level been broken? Then look to see if price will come back to test that level. Remember, resistance once broken can become support in the future and support once broken can become resistance in the future.

These Forex day trading scenarios can present excellent trading opportunities as you put an entry order in at the key level and wait for price to come back and pull you in. Within a short time your dealing spread is covered and you are in profit.

5. The market spends most of its time in trading ranges or consolidation channels. You need to accept that this is a characteristic of Forex day trading and adjust your mindset accordingly. Identify the high and low of the trading channel and manage your trades accordingly.

6. After identifying a trading channel or range and you see a trading opportunity, set your entry level at the base of the channel if you are going long or at the top of the channel if you are going short.

Don't chase after price once it breaks out of the channel (although many who engage in Forex day trading do so). You will not get the optimal entry point. Waiting for price to take you in either at the top or bottom of the channel means you can have a smaller stop and your price target is closer.

7. Pay particular attention to the previous day's high and low. Price will often hesitate and retrace at these levels. If you are a Forex day trading scalper, you can often grab a nice pull back of 10 pips or more at these strategic levels.

Note: Although there are various ways to calculate the previous 24 hour period depending on where you live, using GMT as a standard is often beneficial. Midnight GMT is a time when the market is generally very quiet and unlikely to make new highs or lows.

Succeed Or Fail?

It is unlikely you will succeed at Forex day trading if you fail to understand or take into consideration support and resistance. This indicator is that crucial! Yes there may be fancy indicators out there with all the bells and whistles, but this simple indicator, marking where price reached a high or low during previous trading sessions, can be one of the most powerful and effective Forex day trading tools available.

Be sure you spend sufficient time studying it, examining your charts, marking off the key levels each time you begin a new Forex day trading session.

Michael A. Jones is a writer, webmaster and Forex trader.

Do you want to make consistent profits and take your trading to the next level?

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/forex-course.html

For a purely mechanical strategy for the EUR/USD pair click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-trading-machine.htm

For a collection of invaluable free Forex tools:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you're looking for a forex trading platform, I can highly recommend Easy Forex. They offer competitive spreads, guaranteed stop-losses if required, live training and support, and you can start trading with as little as $25.

Wednesday, 2 May 2007

Forex Traders - Speculating on The Presently Undervalued Chinese Yuan



(by Ariyo Akinlosotu)

The Yuan can yield tremendous profits to investors if it rises against the dollar. The article below will discuss fully about the subject.

China’s trade surplus has been a sore thumb with the American government over the past few years. The Americans believe that their massive trade deficit with China is fuelled by a cheap Yuan policy which the Chinese government is determined to pursue in order to keep its economy humming at break neck speeds.

In order to keep the Yuan weak, the government has been mopping up dollars at a frantic pace. This has made China the country with the most foreign reserves, now topping over $1.2trillion. This is equivalent to half it’s GDP and will easily accommodate over one year of imports- which is far higher than the acceptable four months.

The question is- can the Chinese accept a revaluation of the Yuan to more acceptable levels?

The communist government is terrified of social disorder. Its only claim to legitimacy is the fast economic growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out poverty over the past two decades especially in the last six years.

One of its primary tools of achieving fast growth is the weak Yuan policy which has created and sustained a manufacturing and export boom which in turn as lifted growth to dizzying levels.

Unfortunately for the government however, there is still discontent. There are over a 100million surplus farm hands seeking work and unemployment still exist in the cities.

Also large parts of China still remain very poor especially the hinterland.

To add to this, many farmers in the rural areas where most of them are based complain about official neglect and corruption.

China thus believes it still needs years of fast economic growth to arrest the above mentioned problems.

However, things are not as simple as they seem.

First and foremost, the weak Yuan which is tied to the dollar is causing liquidity to rise to dangerous levels within the economy. This is in turn swelling demand to horrendous levels. And deflation has now been replaced by inflation. Too high a level of inflation may bring- wait a minute- social disorder. Many analysts speculate that high inflation was perhaps the true trigger for the Tiananmen tragedy.

From high inflation perspective alone, the Yuan needs to strengthen

Anyway, the government has begun tightening credit, always preferring to use crude monetary instruments such as restricting the quantity of loans flowing to some certain sectors especially real estate and steel which are poster children of the boom.

This is working to slow down growth both only slightly.

Growth can only be moderated if the Yuan rises. And the truth is that a rise will not lead to a downturn, but at most – a very soft landing. Growth may slow to 8% which is not bad but less than the double digit figures it has been enjoying of late.

The government has since 2005 permitted the Yuan to appreciate and it has consequent gone from Y8.28/$1 TO 7.71/$1. And interestingly enough, this did not cool the economy.

This indicates that further strengthening of the currency may not in reality have a dampening effect on growth.

The question now is- to what level must the Yuan rise before it reaches its real value?

Tying it with a basket of other currencies, the value will need to rise to between 6.50 and 7Yuan to the U.S currency. Whether the government will have the stomach for it is another matter.

The economy can still grow at 8% annually.

The probability of such a rate appreciation taking place may be plausible bearing in mind that the government has allowed the currency to appreciate slowly against the dollar in particular.

For the time being, however, I foresee the currency hitting 7.40Yuan to a $1 within the year or at the least 7.50.

This portends a fat profit for any trader that decides to make a move now. It may be one of the best pickings for the year.

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Tuesday, 1 May 2007

Trading Plan



(by Sum Edward)

Trading is a business. As in any other business, a well thought-out plan can make the difference between success and failure. A trading plan is a pact you make with yourself. It is your personal blueprint for success. It must include not only your goals but must also detail how you plan to achieve them. Traders work alone, and so do not need to deal with many of the organizational issues confronting other business plans. But traders need a business plan (trading plan) just as much as any other business.

The three important factors that need to be strongly engrained into our minds and ultimately into our trading plans are Trading Psychology, Discipline, and a Trading System.

Trading Psychology: Your mind is your main trading asset and must be guarded. How do you plan to protect yourself throughout your trading career? How will you guard against burnout? When and for how long will you take a vacation or a break from trading? (Remember, it’s ok and it’s healthy to take a break from trading). What is your plan in the event of an unusually large loss? Are there things outside your trading which heavily influence you emotionally? How do you plan to deal with them? Emotional decisions are the most destructive factor to the bottom line. Your trading plan is your protection to guard against these!

Perhaps the single most important aspect of trading and yet the one that is paid little attention to by the average trader is the psychology of trading. Traders must remain emotionally detached from the market; this is easy to say but often difficult to do. A new trader will experience a gauntlet of emotions as they enter the markets for the first time – fear, anxiety, panic, joy, even greed – these are all emotions that the greenhorn trader should not only expect but be prepared to face. You need to remain emotionally detached and act according to your trading plan. Emotional imbalance impairs your ability to make intelligent decisions.

Of course, there are other things to consider besides your emotions. Do you know why you are trading? Are you trading for the thrill, for the challenge, or to make a steady income? Whatever the reason, you will enjoy the experience more and trade better if you know your purpose. Many new traders approach the market with unrealistic expectations. Instead of seeing trading as a business which requires both time and some hard work, they see the market as nothing more than a place to make “quick and easy money.” At first they may do well but without any kind of plan in place invariably their inexperience and overconfidence catches up with them.

You must accept the fact that the market is always right and that at times you’re going to be wrong. There is no shame in being wrong, even the best traders can be in error. If you don’t admit your wrong and do something about it, fear, greed and hope can cloud your vision of the market and can cause emotional responses harmful to your trading. Do not become in love with a losing position. If you’re wrong – admit it, get out, salvage your trading capital and wait for the next trading opportunity. Conversely, congratulate yourself and feel good about a trade when you have labored according to your trading plan, regardless of the profit or loss.

Acknowledge that you are the person responsible for your winning and losing – do not blame the market, do not blame a hot tip that did not plan out, and do not blame a newsletter or financial advisor. Losses give us the chance to focus on where our plan fell short and to instantly correct it.

Discipline:
Like most things in life, you will not succeed without discipline. Discipline is adhering to your established trading plan, including entry points and stops. To become consistently profitable, we must have a high level of self-discipline with a well-defined trading strategy that effectively maximizes profitable trades and minimizes losing trades. Creating a trading plan is relatively easy but it is the discipline to follow that plan that will differentiate capable traders from all others. During periods of profit, adhering to a trading plan is comparatively easy. However, during periods of loss the same trading plan will appear rigid and constricting and it is at such times that a trader will be tempted to stray from the plan. At times you might want to deviate from your trading plan, but doing so invalidates the reason for preparing it in the first place. Remember the purpose of the plan was to provide guidelines to follow. Breaking from it will often lead to risk exposure that you were originally unprepared to take.

Besides abandoning your trading plan, a lack of discipline can lead to other troubles for the trader. If you abandon your trading plan you may be tempted to impatiently rush into or out of trades without considering the consequences. You might also start to ignore price charts or start falling victim to your emotions. And most assuredly you will not utilize your stop-losses. Once you ignore your stop-losses it is only a matter of time before you make your last trade. How can you make money, if you don’t have any money to trade with? The most important trading rule is to cut your losses. Even though your primary motivation is to make money and you consider this important, protecting your trading capital is even more important.

One of the best ways to manage your risk when trading is to limit how much money you put into a single position. This is to guard against the possibility of something unpleasant occurring. What is the maximum percentage of your trading capital you are prepared to commit to a single trade? If you have had three losses in a row, the likelihood that you are going to have a profitable trade doesn’t automatically swing in your favor. Don’t increase your trade size thinking your next winner is just around the corner. Instead, after a few losses, your trade size should be decreased slightly to reflect your reduce trading capital. You also have to ask yourself, “What happens if you keep losing money?” Are you prepared to lose all of your trading capital before you are forced to stop, or do you think you would like to hold on to some of the money and place it somewhere else, with the plan of either not trading again for an extended period of time or giving up altogether?

There is a lot to learn about managing your money in trading. Telling you to cut losses is one thing but executing it ruthlessly and without delay can be another.

Trading System:
Having a routine makes it so much easier to follow your plan. Why is this critical? Well, why do most traders fail? Simple, they don’t have a plan. A trading plan will often follow a trading routine that the trader consistently exercises over and over again. The routine should bring together most of the parts of your trading plan into a methodical and deliberate process for each and every trade.

When you do not have a written trading plan, even though you have developed a plan in your head, it is too easy to drift away and go back to old habits. Having the written plan will guide you to making the right decisions. Consider the difference between knowing what has to be done and what you want to do. In trading, what has to be done is always the right choice, yet if you do not have a trading plan, you can easily decide with what you want to do, instead.

In your routine you’ll likely be sorting through large amounts of information in the form of websites. A routine will help you manage the information flow, it is important to identify what information you need and where you will find it. What information do you really need to trade and what information is for interest only but does not effect on your decisions?

Decide how you will categorize the industry/economic sectors in the market. Will you use any form of sector analysis in your method? If so, how will you use it? Will it be the starting point for your trade selection process or will it be a final filter to ensure you don’t enter stocks that belong to poorly performing sectors? If you are going to use fundamental analysis, what items are of most interest to you? For example, are you interested in earnings, dividends, growth, acquisitions? If so, how will you use that information?

Write down your trading methodology. Start by talking in very general terms about how you are going to approach your trades. As examples, are you going to trade only heavily traded stocks that are trading at new 52-week highs? Or are you going to trade more speculative stocks and trade breakouts and/or chart patterns? Are you going to use technical analysis? If so, will you be looking at trends? Over what time frame and how are you going to identify them? Are you interested in reversals of short-term or medium-term trends? If so, how will you identify them and then what will you do once you identify them? How about technical indicators? Will you use any of them? What are your conditions that you look for in all of your trades? What setups will you use and do you have printed examples in your trading plan to go back and review. Finally, what triggers will you use? Usually following specific trading rules and keeping it simple works best!

Write down your trading methodology. Start by talking in very general terms about how you are going to approach your trades. As examples, are you going to trade only heavily traded stocks that are trading at new 52-week highs? Or are you going to trade more speculative stocks and trade breakouts and/or chart patterns? Are you going to use technical analysis? If so, will you be looking at trends? Over what time frame and how are you going to identify them? Are you interested in reversals of short-term or medium-term trends? If so, how will you identify them and then what will you do once you identify them? How about technical indicators? Will you use any of them? What are your conditions that you look for in all of your trades? What setups will you use and do you have printed examples in your trading plan to go back and review. Finally, what triggers will you use? Usually following specific trading rules and keeping it simple works best!

It is essential that you monitor your performance for a variety of reasons. The most basic of these is to ensure you protect your trading capital. Further, monitoring your performance allows you to review your past trades and learn from your mistakes. This is an approach used by some of the best traders in the world. They will periodically review all of the trades they have conducted, both winners and losers, and learn from them. How will you go about conducting a review of your trading activities and how often will you do this? A trading diary should detail all of your trading decisions, including reasons for starting a trade, your emotions when opening the trade, trend direction, as well as daily adjustments of exits. A trading diary provides you with a methodical way of maintaining a clear focus. It can also assist you with learning from your mistake.

A written trading plan is the only way to go. It is critical that you create your plan when you are thinking clearly and then trade your plan. By planning each trade from beginning to end you are forced to follow a disciplined and methodical approach to the markets.

Please also visit http://options-diary.blogspot.com

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